Scheme on Improvement of Fiscal Forecasting Through Development of Macroeconometric Model

   Achievements as on June 30, 2026

             

Adoption of Dynamic Macro Models for the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework
Dynamic macro models, including MFMOD and Financial Programming and Policies, have been adopted to strengthen the preparation of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework. These tools have enhanced the government’s capacity to generate more realistic macroeconomic projections by analyzing key variables such as GDP growth, inflation, revenue, expenditure, fiscal deficit, balance of payments and public debt. This has contributed to a more evidence-based and technically sound approach to macroeconomic planning and fiscal policy formulation.

 

Integration of the Macroeconomic Framework Foundations Tool
The Macroeconomic Framework Foundations Tool, developed with technical assistance from the IMF, has been integrated into the forecasting process. It now functions as a second analytical tool alongside MFMOD to generate macroeconomic forecasts. The use of an additional forecasting tool has improved the scope for cross-checking projections, validating assumptions and strengthening the credibility of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework.

 

Exploration of International Best Practices in Dynamic Macro-Econometric Modelling
A number of international best practices in the use of dynamic macro-econometric models have been explored, particularly from comparable countries. This has helped policymakers and technical officials understand how similar economies apply macroeconomic models for forecasting, policy analysis and fiscal risk assessment. The learning from these experiences is supporting the gradual customization of modelling practices in line with Bangladesh’s own economic structure and policy needs.

 

Acquisition of Software for Smooth Operation of MFMOD
Necessary software has been acquired to ensure the smooth and effective operation of MFMOD. This has created a stronger technical foundation for running macroeconomic simulations, updating datasets, generating forecasts and analyzing policy scenarios. The availability of appropriate software also supports institutional capacity building by enabling officials to use the model more efficiently and consistently.

 

Development of a Web-Based Macroeconomic Data Hub
A web-based macroeconomic data hub is being developed to support better data management, accessibility and analysis. The data hub is expected to serve as a centralized platform for storing, updating and using macroeconomic data required for forecasting, modelling and policy analysis. Once operational, it will reduce data fragmentation, improve coordination among relevant agencies and support timely preparation of macroeconomic and fiscal reports.

 

Assessment and Incorporation of Macro-Fiscal Risks in MTMPS
Macro-fiscal risks have been assessed and incorporated into the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement. This represents an important step toward making fiscal planning more realistic and risk-sensitive. By identifying potential risks related to growth, inflation, revenue, expenditure, exchange rate, debt and external sector developments, the government can better anticipate fiscal pressures and design appropriate policy responses.

 


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